Baijiu Bubble Burst. China’s luxury goods next?

When China’s new premier, Xi Jinping, walked smiling on to the stage with the rest of China’s new central leadership team back in November, few people would have anticipated the immediate consequences to the Baijiu industry.

Baijiu, China’s home-grown spirit that, incredibly, accounts for over 35% of global spirit sales (whisky is just ~10%), will see an unprecedented collapse in its volumes and profits.   The staple drink of China’s banquet-loving Government officers and State Owned Enterprise management teams has been hit by a ban on excessive expenditure by public officials which has included purges on everything from entourages, fresh flowers, entertainment performances, gifts, and lavish meals.

It is these last two (gifts and meals) that will deal Baijiu’s pricing and volume a double blow – just before the Chinese New Year gifting period when Baijiu is traditionally one of the most favoured presents, with gifting the major seasonal driver of off-trade (retail) spirit sales. 

 On-trade (bar, restaurant, nightclub) sales of Baijiu had already been hit by the reduction in corporate entertaining in the run up to the Communist Party Congress/Leadership Change, but rather than recover – as industry observers had anticipated – the contraction appears to have accelerated since Mr. Xi came to power as he seeks to make graft/corruption reduction a high profile early win to boost the flagging popularity of the Chinese government amongst the increasing vocal people of the People’s Republic.

We at Concise China are seeing the effects first hand by visiting retailers. Pricing of Moutai and Wuliangye (another famous Baijiu brand) at major retailers in Shanghai is down by USD$100/bottle (not a typo)!  With the pricing in a downward spiral and no end in sight, it may not be over for the beleaguered stocks which have seen >USD$30Billion in value wiped out since the leadership change.  And all of this is BEFORE the inevitable poor sales results of the critical CNY period are published next month!

However, I don’t believe that Baijiu will be the only casualty of this (permanent?) China sea change.  The astonishing growth of luxury goods in China (now the world’s number 2 market after Japan) is also driven by gifting. 

Highly visible gifts can be spotted, as was shown by the blogger who recently published photos on line of a senior local government official wearing a variety of Swiss watches at various public meetings! (Despite the watches’ value amounting to many times his annual income.)  The official is no longer in his job.

 

So, who else should be bracing themselves for the fall out?  I believe the following are the most exposed, in no particular order:

·      Luxury bags

·      Swiss watches

·      5-Star Hotels

·      Luxury restaurants

·      Premium spirits, especially Cognac

·      KTV (Chinese karaoke where most corporate entertainment and ‘deals’ are done)

·      Golf Clubs (some of whom have been charging over $200,000 for memberships, often paid for with company money or ‘gifted’)

·      Luxury houses (many of which have been illegally registered by government officers to names of other people to avoid discovery)

Whatever happens, China’s gift-giving, graft-based commercial and political environment has changed for good.  How deeply these reforms become ingrained in the slow changing Chinese cultural psyche remains to be seen.  But now would be a prudent moment for luxury goods companies and related industries to recalibrate their China expectations.

Proud to be British

One of the disadvantages of living in China is missing some of the truly great TV that the UK produces. Whilst dodgy DVD’s let some of this through (eg: I loved Downton Abbey, although was Series 2 dumbed down a bit?), there is often a long time lag to us seeing this in China.

A current UK TV series that I was completely unaware of until this week is Twenty Twelve – a brilliantly insightful piece of satirical comedy that follows the imaginary trials and tribulations of the event “Deliverance” team behind the London 2012 Olympic Games. (Hugh Bonneville, the actor who played the Lord of Downton Abbey, coincidentally heads the cast of this series too)

Having organized my share of events in the past, some of the situations and scenarios that Twenty Twelve dramatises are totally believable, and the dead pan delivery of the script by the superb ensemble cast make it laugh-out-loud funny (which is OK at home, but less appropriate on a British Airways plane when everyone else is asleep!).

I do not think there is ANY other country in the world that would allow/accept/tolerate a publically-funded organization (the BBC) making a comedy about how many mistakes and cock-ups a country could possibly make in the lead up to the most prestigious sporting event on the planet. What makes this even more astounding is that Seb Coe, the head of the actual London Olympic Organising Committee, even agreed to play a cameo role in one of the episodes, and the antics/opinions/idiosyncrasies of the colourful London mayor, Boris Johnson, is a consistent humorous theme running throughout every episode.

This really is TV at its best - and something that makes me proud that I come from a country as creative and self-confident as the UK.

Thank you BBC for making this, and thank you BA for sharing it - as one of the official sponsors of the games, I would have understood if BA had chosen not to.

TWENTY TWELVE

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00yw1t9

CRM finally comes of age in China

20th March 2012 may be an important milestone in the development of China's CRM industry. In the ten years that I have been involved in trying to get companies in China to do CRM right, I have been continually undermined by the prevalence and low cost of illegally obtained and resold customer data.

As a result, only the most ethical and visionary companies have taken the time and trouble to build databases of their own customers through traditional means to cultivate powerful long term relationships. Everyone else has used mass spam email and SMS communications in a random, shotgun approach. It was only because of the sheer scale of data freely available in China that this approach had any effect - if you throw enough mud, some of it will stick.

But today, it has emerged all over the news wires that one of Chinas largest and most well known data companies (owned by Dun and Bradstreet, no less) was raided by the police and shut down for allegedly using and selling illegally obtained data (see separate article here: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2012-03/20/content_14867153.htm )

Whilst bad news for New York-listed Dun & Bradstreet, this is great news for those of us who believe that CRM is a strategic play, not a tactical one - even in China.

How to understand the purchase behaviour of Chinese consumers in just three characters: 性价比

I have always found it interesting that no matter how wealthy a Chinese consumer may be, they are insistent on trying to get a better deal on most of their transactions. Whilst I knew this was cultural, I never truly understood it until I learned the three characters 性价比 (xìng jià bǐ). Literally this translates as:

性 quality

价 price

比 compare

The Chinese apply this quality-price ratio assessment to every purchase decision, no matter how cheap or how expensive the item is.

If a Chinese consumer (for example, my wife) believes that a silk scarf is over priced in a market at 50 RMB she may argue/negotiate relentlessly for what seems like hours until she achieves a price that provides her with sufficient xìng jià bǐ. And yet if a Chinese consumer (for example, my wife again) spots something in a London antique shop that she believes offers xìng jià bǐ, she will buy it in a flash, even if the cost is 100 times that of the silk scarf.

It is essential that brand owners and marketers truly understand this when making pricing decisions in China. It is rarely relevant what it costs to make, it is simply about what value the Chinese consumer places on that item, and if that value exceeds the selling price. If it does, it will sell.

Consequently, the importance of the back story and brand heritage of international brands cannot be understated - if a consumer feels they are buying into a tradition or intangible benefit that cannot be found in any other product, then the more usual price comparison becomes an irrelevance in the purchase decision.

xìng jià bǐ is all you need.
(And you thought marketing in China was complicated?) :-)

How to market a US$ 1 million house in Shanghai

This picture taken today shows a young and enthusiastic real estate agent standing at a cross roads in a Shanghai suburb. He his holding a hand-written sign advertising a US$1 million house nearby.

Contrast this with the US or UK, where properties of this value are advertised in prestige magazines and viewings are carefully selected.

With property prices in China's key cities still massively over valued compared to global norms, the value perception is such that a US$1 million house does not warrant any special marketing approach, other than a guy with a sign on the street.

One has to question how sustainable these valuations really are, and whether the Chinese ten year property bubble really is about to finally deflate?

If so, the guy on the street might have to start selling something else - and so will his many friends!

Early Adopters

This picture taken today in a traditional Chinese vegetable market shows a typical Chinese "early adopter/early majority". She has just bought a new 3G mobile phone and is very proud of it.

Her demographic is hardly the target audience for a 3G Smartphone. Her salary is about US$300 per month and I question her need to be "always on" with her social network! But there she is, proudly standing behind her vegetable stall with her unopened 3G phone.

Mobile phones, like many other categories in China, show that the Chinese often adopt products at an earlier lifestage/product maturity. Good examples include Scotch whisky, iPads, Swiss watches, and luxury cars.

One of my Chinese friends has just spent 750,000RMB (over US$100,000) on an Infiniti G37 convertible car. His (Japanese) work colleagues wonder how he can afford it, as in Japan this is the type of car you would buy at the peak of your earnings. But in China, you need this type of car earlier in your career development to show to everyone (especially your peers) that you are one of life's achievers. And what does he do at weekends? he has joined the Infiniti G37 car club, so like-minded achievers like him can drive down China's new motorways in convoy and network with each other at their destination.











So next time you wonder how and why the Chinese are buying up the world's latest technology and luxury goods, remember the middle-aged woman in the vegetable market.

Paying the ultimate price

After the China high speed rail crash tragedy over the weekend, I was not surprised to see that 3 high-ranking officials of China Railways were immediately fired. Whilst this very visible action from the government may go someway to appeasing the masses, it is not the correct reaction. Instead, China should shut down its high speed rail network until every inch of track has been walked, every power unit checked and every signal/safety device tested.

With all honesty, I do not believe that the train crash on Saturday can be said to have been a surprise. Mired in corruption allegations from the start, this visually impressive show-piece of Chinese infrastructure has had a series of embarrassing breakdowns in the last few weeks and so there was a degree of inevitability about Saturday's disaster.

Whilst corruption has doubtless played a part in what is increasingly looking like shoddy construction, it is not the only factor. China has "acquired" immense knowledge and capability almost overnight in many high tech industries, without the accompanying due process of trial, error, learning and refinement. As a result, I believe there is less of an appreciation of the complexities and risks associated with applying this technology. This shallow understanding therefore leads to a blasé approach to construction and maintenance, with a corresponding stretching of safety margins and tolerances.

45 people have now paid the ultimate price on Saturday. I pray that their deaths are motivating enough to ensure that the necessary steps are taken to ensure this will never happen again. But in a country of 1.4 billion and where life is still cheap, I fear that nothing will really change.